Cost-effectiveness of milk powder fortified with potassium to decrease blood pressure and prevent cardiovascular events among the adult population in China: a Markov model

OBJECTIVE To model the long-term cost-effectiveness of consuming milk powder fortified with potassium to decrease systolic blood pressure (SBP) and prevent cardiovascular events. DESIGN A best case scenario analysis using a Markov model was conducted. PARTICIPANTS 8.67% of 50-79 year olds who regularly consume milk in China, including individuals with and without a prior diagnosis of hypertension. INTERVENTION The model simulated the potential impact of a daily intake of two servings of milk powder fortified with potassium (+700 mg/day) vs the consumption of a milk powder without potassium fortification, assuming a market price equal to 0.99 international dollars (intl$; the consumption of a milk powder without potassium fortification, assuming a market price equal to intl$0.99 for the latter and to intl$1.12 for the first (+13.13%). Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Estimates of the incidence of cardiovascular events and subsequent mortality in China were derived from the literature as well as the effect of increasing potassium intake on blood pressure. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of a milk powder fortified with potassium taking into consideration the direct medical costs associated with the cardiovascular events, loss of working days and health utilities impact. RESULTS With an ICER equal to int$4711.56 per QALY (quality-adjusted life year) in the best case scenario and assuming 100% compliance, the daily consumption of a milk powder fortified with potassium shown to be a cost-effective approach to decrease SBP and reduce cardiovascular events in China. Healthcare savings due to prevention would amount to intl$8.41 billion. Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the results. CONCLUSION Together with other preventive interventions, the consumption of a milk powder fortified with potassium could represent a cost-effective strategy to attenuate the rapid rise in cardiovascular burden among the 50-79 year olds who regularly consume milk in China.